AGOA runs out on 31 December 2026 and nothing is queued to replace it. But five other duty routes already exist, and one of them — China's zero-tariff treatment for 53 African countries — went live in May 2026 and is larger in scope than AGOA ever was. Here is the honest comparison.
AGOA's authorisation ends 31 December 2026 and no successor programme exists in law. Nothing replaces it automatically. China's zero-tariff treatment covers 100% of tariff lines for 53 African countries — broader coverage than AGOA ever offered. Live since 1 May 2026 for non-LDCs, since December 2024 for the 33 African LDCs. The non-LDC China window runs to 30 April 2028 and its permanence depends on a bilateral agreement being concluded. Price it as a two-year advantage, not a permanent one. US MFN is the real fallback. Many raw coffee, cocoa and spice lines already carry a 0% General rate, so an AGOA lapse changes nothing for them; apparel carries the largest exposure. EU access is gated by compliance, not tariffs. EBA already gives African LDCs duty-free access — EUDR, CBAM and CSDDD are what decide whether you keep the buyer. AfCFTA is the only route not set by a foreign legislature, and the only one with no expiry date attached.
Route Who qualifies Coverage Status into 2027 AGOA (US) 32 eligible sub-Saharan countries ~1,800 lines on top of GSP Expires 31 Dec 2026 US GSP Designated developing countries ~5,000 lines Requires its own Congressional authorisation — verify current status US MFN Everyone with normal trade relations All lines, at the General rate Permanent — this is the fallback China zero-tariff 53 African countries with diplomatic ties 100% of tariff lines LDCs: since Dec 2024. Non-LDCs: May 2026 - Apr 2028 EU EBA / GSP LDCs (EBA); other low-income states (GSP) EBA: everything but arms Ongoing AfCFTA African states trading with each other Progressive liberalisation Ongoing, and the only route not set by a foreign legislature
If AGOA lapses and GSP does not cover your line, your goods enter the US at the ordinary Normal Trade Relations (MFN) rate shown in the General column of the US Harmonized Tariff Schedule. This is the single most important number for any exporter shipping to the US in 2027, and most have never looked it up. The result surprises people in both directions. Many raw agricultural lines — a number of coffee, cocoa and spice codes among them — already carry a 0% General rate , meaning AGOA is not what keeps their duty at zero and a lapse changes nothing. Apparel and made-up textiles are the opposite: this is where AGOA does the heavy lifting and where a lapse lands hardest on landed cost. Action: pull the General rate for every 8-digit HTS line you ship. If it reads 0%, tell your US buyer — they may be pricing in a risk that does not apply to your goods.
The Generalized System of Preferences covers roughly 5,000 lines for designated developing countries, and AGOA has always sat on top of it rather than replacing it. GSP has its own authorisation cycle and has itself lapsed and been renewed retroactively in the past, so it cannot be treated as a stable floor. Verify its current authorisation status for your shipment date rather than assuming it.
This is the route most African exporters have not priced in, and it is bigger than AGOA in coverage terms. Since 1 December 2024 , China has applied zero tariffs on 100% of tariff lines for the 33 African least-developed countries with which it has diplomatic relations. From 1 May 2026 , that treatment extended to all 53 African countries with diplomatic ties to China — adding the 20 non-LDC states including Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa. For the non-LDC group the treatment currently runs as a preferential rate for two years, to 30 April 2028 , with permanence contingent on the China-Africa Economic Partnership for Shared Development agreement being concluded. Chinese government material cites products previously facing 8% to 30% duty — cocoa from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, coffee and avocados from Kenya, citrus and wine from South Africa — now entering at zero. Two caveats that m
EBA gives African LDCs duty-free, quota-free access to the EU market on everything except arms and ammunition. It is the most generous EU route and it is not time-boxed to a renewal calendar in the way AGOA is. The trade-off is that EU market access is gated far less by tariffs than by compliance : EUDR, CBAM, CSDDD and the organic equivalence transition are where African exporters actually lose EU contracts. The duty is rarely the binding constraint.
EPAs are reciprocal agreements with regional blocs and individual states, and they matter most for non-LDC African economies that do not qualify for EBA. Because they are treaty-based rather than unilateral, they are more stable than a preference programme — nobody's legislature can let them lapse by inaction. Check whether your country trades with the EU under an EPA, EBA or standard GSP, because the answer changes both your duty and your rules-of-origin test.
Every other route on this list depends on a decision made in Washington, Beijing or Brussels. AfCFTA is the one where African exporters and African governments are the counterparties. It delivers progressive tariff liberalisation on intra-African trade, and claiming it requires an AfCFTA Certificate of Origin and a rules-of-origin test your goods must actually pass. AfCFTA is not a substitute for the US or EU market on volume today. It is the route that does not expire, and the one where building capability now compounds rather than resets every authorisation cycle.
Map each of your top lines to all six routes. Most exporters find they have two viable routes they were not using and one they assumed they had. Re-quote your China-destined goods. If duty fell 8-30% on 1 May 2026 and your price has not moved, someone in the chain is capturing that margin and it is probably not you. Write the duty assumption into Q1 2027 contracts , naming who absorbs a change. This is the single most common source of disputes when a preference lapses. Treat EU access as a compliance project, not a tariff project. EBA already gives you the duty; EUDR and CBAM are what decide whether you keep the buyer. Start the AfCFTA Certificate of Origin process if you have any intra-African volume. It is the only route with no expiry date attached.
Office of the United States Trade Representative — statement on the reauthorisation of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, 3 February 2026. Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026, Division I, Section 5019 (AGOA reauthorisation through 31 December 2026, retroactive to 30 September 2025). The State Council of the People's Republic of China — zero-tariff treatment for African countries with diplomatic ties, effective 1 May 2026. US Harmonized Tariff Schedule — General (MFN) rates by line. Last reviewed 5 August 2026. General guidance, not legal advice — confirm your specific HTS or HS line and your country's current eligibility with a qualified customs broker before quoting.